Resilient State: The Indicators
A blueprint of 18 essential state metrics for resilience, innovation, and adaptability—designed to refocus governance on what truly drives future prosperity.
In an era defined by uncertainty, complexity, and accelerating change, the future of any nation depends not only on how well it performs today but on how intelligently it prepares for tomorrow. Too often, public discourse is consumed by immediate controversies and political skirmishes, while the deeper structural levers that determine national strength, prosperity, and resilience remain poorly understood or ignored. This article seeks to reset that focus. It presents a framework of 18 metrics that serve as a blueprint for building a successful, adaptive, and sovereign future society—metrics that capture the invisible engines of state capacity, economic dynamism, and societal cohesion.
These indicators are not arbitrary or symbolic. Each one corresponds to a core systemic function that determines whether a state is able to respond to shocks, evolve in the face of disruption, and capitalize on emerging opportunities. From the speed at which a country implements reform to its ability to diversify exports, mobilize trust, adapt regulation, or develop strategic foresight—each metric reveals an essential component of national power in the 21st century. If these components are weak or misaligned, no amount of surface-level political change will yield lasting success.
Many nations fall into the trap of managing symptoms rather than root causes. By contrast, this article offers a map of the deep structures that actually govern a state’s long-term trajectory. These metrics reflect how well a society learns, adapts, creates, coordinates, anticipates, and includes. They go beyond GDP or debt ratios and instead focus on the underlying machinery of resilience, innovation, and human potential. In this sense, the framework offers a new way to look at statecraft—not as maintenance of the status quo, but as the proactive shaping of long-term flourishing.
Measurement is a form of power. What we choose to measure shapes what we prioritize, fund, and improve. The 18 metrics here serve as a strategic compass—a way for leaders, policymakers, citizens, and institutions to orient themselves toward what truly matters. They are the kinds of indicators that should live not just in obscure reports, but in dashboards guiding every national strategy, every ministry’s budget, every reform roadmap. If we get these right, we create a feedback loop that continually strengthens our society’s ability to adapt, compete, and thrive.
This is especially urgent now. Geopolitical tension, environmental volatility, technological disruption, demographic shifts, and institutional decay all conspire to challenge the modern state. In such a context, resilience cannot be reactive—it must be designed. These metrics help us diagnose current vulnerabilities and build systems that improve under pressure. They also signal to the world that we are not a passive player, but a country capable of intelligent autonomy and sovereign decision-making.
At the same time, these indicators are not purely technocratic. Many of them, such as trust, foresight, and adaptability, are as cultural as they are institutional. They require leadership, collective intelligence, and public imagination. But without a clear framework to work toward, these abstract qualities remain disconnected from policy design. That’s why this article is not just a proposal for better measurement—it is an invitation to reimagine governance itself as a dynamic, learning-based system, capable of managing both risks and possibilities with wisdom.
Ultimately, this is a call to focus national attention and effort on the things that compound—capabilities, coordination, creativity, and credibility. These are the true drivers of competitive advantage in the 21st century. The 18 metrics presented here form the beginning of a national scoreboard that actually reflects our strategic health. It is time we stop measuring what is easy and start measuring what is essential. Only then can we align the machinery of the state with the ambition of a society that wants to thrive—not just survive—in the decades to come.
Summary
🔹 1. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Growth
Purpose: Measures how efficiently a country turns labor and capital into output.
Why it matters: It reflects system-wide innovation and organizational performance. High TFP growth means you're improving beyond simply working more or investing more.
🔹 2. Government Effectiveness Index
Purpose: Assesses the quality of public services, policy implementation, and bureaucratic competence.
Why it matters: Efficient governments deliver results, attract investment, and maintain public trust in times of transformation.
🔹 3. Policy Implementation Velocity
Purpose: Tracks how quickly laws, strategies, or reforms are executed once passed.
Why it matters: Speed of execution is essential in fast-moving global environments, particularly for crises and innovation adoption.
🔹 4. Strategic Project Completion Ratio
Purpose: Evaluates the proportion of large, multi-year state-led projects that are completed on time and within budget.
Why it matters: Completion of such projects signals operational discipline, institutional focus, and long-term impact capacity.
🔹 5. Digital Public Infrastructure Maturity
Purpose: Gauges the robustness of digital government platforms (ID, payments, registries).
Why it matters: Mature digital infrastructure enables resilience, speed, and equity in delivering public services and crisis response.
🔹 6. AI & Data Readiness Score
Purpose: Measures institutional preparedness to govern, deploy, and use AI and data systems.
Why it matters: AI readiness is a core factor in global competitiveness and decision-making quality.
🔹 7. Crisis Responsiveness Score
Purpose: Assesses how fast and effectively institutions respond to emergencies.
Why it matters: Timely, coordinated response is a litmus test of state resilience, especially under extreme uncertainty.
🔹 8. Resilience Investment Ratio
Purpose: Tracks the share of the budget dedicated to infrastructure, health, digital, and systems resilience.
Why it matters: Signals proactive governance – spending before disaster strikes, not only reacting after.
🔹 9. Dynamic Capability Index
Purpose: Measures how well institutions can sense changes, seize opportunities, and reconfigure themselves.
Why it matters: A fundamental pillar of antifragility – the ability not just to survive shocks but to grow from them.
🔹 10. Institutional Adaptability Score
Purpose: Evaluates the flexibility of laws, policies, and organizational structures.
Why it matters: In a rapidly changing world, rigid institutions break – flexible ones adapt and lead.
🔹 11. Public R&D Intensity
Purpose: Tracks public investment in research and development as a % of GDP.
Why it matters: Indicates future competitiveness, especially in foundational technologies and science.
🔹 12. Innovation System Connectivity Index
Purpose: Measures how well universities, companies, and the state collaborate on innovation.
Why it matters: Innovation thrives in connected ecosystems, not silos.
🔹 13. Export Diversification Index
Purpose: Captures the variety and complexity of a country's export portfolio.
Why it matters: Diverse, complex exports mean greater economic resilience and upward mobility in global value chains.
🔹 14. Entrepreneurship Rate
Purpose: Tracks new business creation and the ecosystem’s capacity to support it.
Why it matters: Reflects grassroots dynamism, local problem-solving, and youth engagement.
🔹 15. Strategic Foresight Capacity
Purpose: Measures how well a government anticipates trends and integrates them into policy.
Why it matters: Without foresight, governments react too late, missing strategic windows.
🔹 16. Regulatory Agility Score
Purpose: Assesses the state’s capacity to update rules in response to new technologies and models.
Why it matters: Innovation is enabled or blocked by how quickly and flexibly laws adapt.
🔹 17. Sovereign Technology Dependence Index
Purpose: Tracks the extent to which critical tech infrastructure depends on foreign systems.
Why it matters: High dependence = geopolitical and operational risk in critical moments.
🔹 18. Civic Trust & Participation Index
Purpose: Measures public trust in institutions and the level of democratic participation.
Why it matters: Trust is a form of social capital that enables reform, stability, and national cohesion in times of change.
The Metrics
🔹 1. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Growth
✅ Why is it essential?
Total Factor Productivity (TFP) captures the true engine of long-term economic growth — improvements not driven by adding more labor or capital, but by better use of resources, technological progress, and systemic efficiency. Unlike GDP, it filters out superficial input-based growth.
🧠 What does it influence?
Sustainable GDP growth
Innovation ROI
Competitiveness in global markets
Resilience to demographic slowdown
National productivity and wage potential
🧩 What are its components?
Technological diffusion
Human capital allocation
Institutional quality (e.g. governance, rule of law)
Sectoral efficiency
Infrastructure complementarity
📐 Metrics:
TFP Growth Rate (%)
Direct measurement from national accounts or OECD estimatesOutput per Hour Worked
A proxy when TFP is unavailable; reflects labor productivity improvementsValue Added per Worker in Knowledge-Intensive Sectors
Shows how well high-tech or high-skill sectors scaleEfficiency Gap (OECD Frontier Comparison)
Gap between domestic TFP and global productivity frontierRate of Resource Misallocation (%)
Quantifies GDP lost from inefficient labor or capital deployment
🔹 2. Government Effectiveness Index
✅ Why is it essential?
This index reflects how capable the government is at designing and implementing policies, delivering services, and upholding trust in institutions. A high-performing government drives development, attracts investment, and implements reform swiftly and reliably.
🧠 What does it influence?
Policy delivery success
Citizen satisfaction and civic trust
Institutional legitimacy
Efficiency of spending
Capacity for crisis response
🧩 What are its components?
Public administration quality
Service delivery capability
Rule enforcement capacity
Political stability and meritocracy
Coordination across ministries and levels
📐 Metrics:
World Bank Government Effectiveness Index (WGI Score)
Global benchmark of perceived institutional qualityPublic Service Performance Score (internal audits / delivery KPIs)
Aggregated effectiveness of ministries and agenciesAverage Policy Implementation Delay (days/months)
Tracks systemic slippage and friction in enacting decisionsCivil Servant Capability Index
Proportion of roles staffed by qualified, continuously trained officialsPublic Complaint Resolution Rate (%)
Effectiveness of grievance redress systems (ombudsman, portals)
🔹 3. Ease of Doing Business / Regulatory Friction Index
✅ Why is it essential?
Business environments with low friction encourage entrepreneurship, innovation, and investment. Red tape, opaque regulation, and administrative inertia stifle growth and deter global players.
🧠 What does it influence?
Business formation rate
SME scaling and survival
Investment pipeline velocity
Speed of innovation diffusion
Cost of compliance for firms
🧩 What are its components?
Administrative burden
Legal transparency
Time and cost of business setup
Regulatory clarity and adaptability
Contract enforcement reliability
📐 Metrics:
Number of Procedures to Start a Business
Measures bureaucratic entry frictionTime to Obtain Business License (avg days)
Tracks permitting efficiency and service reliabilityTax Compliance Time (hours/year)
Reflects burden of paperwork and digital integrationEnforcement of Contracts Index
Measures trust in the legal system to resolve disputes efficientlyShare of Businesses Reporting Regulation as Major Constraint (%)
Taken from business climate surveys (e.g., World Bank Enterprise Surveys)
🔹 4. Public Sector Innovation Index
✅ Why is it essential?
A state that cannot innovate risks falling behind its own society and economy. Public sector innovation reflects how well the government adapts, pilots new ideas, integrates technology, and reorganizes itself to meet modern challenges.
🧠 What does it influence?
Responsiveness to emerging challenges (AI, pandemics, climate)
Efficiency and personalization in service delivery
Trust and legitimacy in dynamic times
Capability to collaborate with private and academic sectors
🧩 What are its components?
Existence of innovation labs or digital transformation offices
Budget dedicated to experimentation
AI and automation use in public services
Openness to co-creation and public feedback
Cultural incentives for risk-taking and learning in government
📐 Metrics:
% of Ministries with Dedicated Innovation Units
Structural signal of innovation embeddednessPublic Sector Experimentation Budget (% of total expenditure)
How much is allocated to pilots, sandboxes, or tech trialsAI/Automation Adoption Rate in Administrative Tasks (%)
Measured by automation of back-office and decision workflowsCitizen Co-Design Participation Rate
Number of services redesigned through citizen input or design sprintsInnovation Cycle Time (Idea-to-Implementation in weeks)
Agility metric: how fast an idea becomes a service
🔹 5. Digital Public Services Index
✅ Why is it essential?
Digital services are the main interface between the citizen and the state in the 21st century. High-quality digital services save money, scale inclusively, and provide 24/7 access to essential rights. Poor digitization results in bottlenecks and distrust.
🧠 What does it influence?
Accessibility and inclusion in public services
Cost-effectiveness of service delivery
User trust and perception of government competence
Crisis responsiveness (e.g., digital vaccine passports, digital aid)
Interoperability of institutions
🧩 What are its components?
Breadth of digital services (e.g. tax filing, ID renewal, benefits)
Accessibility and inclusiveness (mobile-first, multilingual)
Integration across departments (single sign-on, data interoperability)
Digital identity system quality
Cybersecurity and privacy protection
📐 Metrics:
% of Top 20 Public Services Available Fully Online
Key indicator of digital transformation progressAverage Time to Complete a Service Transaction Digitally
User-centered efficiency metric% of Population Using Digital ID for Public Services
Penetration and trust in digital authenticationDigital Inclusion Index (Age, Region, Disability Penetration)
Measures equitable access to e-governmentService Error or Failure Rate in Digital Interfaces (%)
User experience reliability metric
🔹 6. AI Maturity in Government
✅ Why is it essential?
Artificial Intelligence is no longer optional — it defines the next leap in state capacity, including predictive policymaking, fraud detection, and adaptive services. Maturity in AI use reflects both technical depth and institutional governance readiness.
🧠 What does it influence?
Efficiency of operations (cost savings, fraud prevention)
Capacity for strategic foresight (predictive analytics, simulations)
Fairness and transparency in algorithmic governance
National readiness for automation in workforce and education
🧩 What are its components?
Number and quality of AI use cases implemented
AI ethics and governance frameworks
Public trust in automated decision-making
In-house vs outsourced AI development capabilities
Training and reskilling of public employees
📐 Metrics:
Number of Government Functions Using AI Models
E.g. health risk prediction, unemployment fraud detection, smart mobilityAI Procurement Budget as % of IT Spending
Signals prioritization and depth of adoptionExistence and Scope of AI Ethics Guidelines
Binary metric + rating of comprehensiveness% of Civil Servants Trained in AI Use or Oversight
Workforce capability readinessAlgorithmic Decision Appeal Rate (per 1,000 decisions)
Trust and accountability metric in applied AI
🔹 7. Crisis Responsiveness Score
✅ Why is it essential?
Crisis responsiveness reveals the real-time capacity of the state to detect, act, and coordinate across agencies under pressure. It’s the ultimate stress test of governance, often exposing latent weaknesses in logistics, communication, and decision-making hierarchies.
🧠 What does it influence?
Civilian safety and continuity of essential services
Public trust and legitimacy during disruption
Long-term institutional reputation and reform mandates
Cross-border collaboration (e.g., in pandemics or cyberattacks)
🧩 What are its components?
Speed of emergency mobilization
Inter-agency coordination and command structure
Emergency communication effectiveness
Resource prepositioning and supply chain resilience
Lessons-learned cycles and adaptive feedback
📐 Metrics:
Average Time from Incident to National Response Activation (hours)
Measures latency in recognizing and escalating emergenciesEmergency Simulation Completion Rate
% of planned multi-agency drills completed per yearInteragency Crisis Coordination Index
Assessed quality of coordination protocols between key ministries (e.g., Interior, Health, Defense)Population Coverage of Real-Time Alert Systems (%)
E.g., mobile push alert systems, air raid alerts, climate threatsPost-Crisis Action Plan Completion Rate (%)
How many lessons-learned recommendations were implemented within 12 months
🔹 8. Resilience Investment Ratio
✅ Why is it essential?
This measures the proportion of public spending proactively allocated to prevent breakdowns — in contrast to reactive, damage-control budgeting. Resilience is most powerful when invisible — well before disaster strikes.
🧠 What does it influence?
Readiness for shocks across infrastructure, health, climate, or digital realms
Reduction in long-term disaster recovery costs
Fiscal credibility and insurance market confidence
Capacity to avoid compounding crises
🧩 What are its components?
Infrastructure redundancy investments
Digital backup and cybersecurity funding
Preventive healthcare programs
Disaster risk reduction and early warning systems
Resilient supply chain procurement frameworks
📐 Metrics:
% of National Budget Allocated to Resilience-related Spending
Explicit line items for resilience, climate adaptation, digital backup, and contingencyPublic Capital Expenditure on Critical Infrastructure (% of GDP)
Focused on energy, water, transportation resilienceHealth Preparedness Spending per Capita (€)
E.g., stockpiles, epidemic surveillance, emergency bedsCybersecurity Investment as % of Total IT Budget
Focuses on preemptive digital defenseAnnual Growth Rate in Disaster Risk Reduction Budget (%)
Sign of long-term planning capacity
🔹 9. Dynamic Capability Index
✅ Why is it essential?
Drawn from Teece’s framework, dynamic capability in a state context reflects the ability to sense shifts, seize opportunities, and reconfigure resources and institutions as environments change. It’s a key enabler of antifragility — not just surviving, but improving through volatility.
🧠 What does it influence?
Structural transformation of the economy
Fast reorientation of policy under external shocks
Capacity to modernize institutions and services
Flexibility in budget, personnel, legal frameworks
🧩 What are its components?
Strategic scanning and foresight systems
Agile resource reallocation mechanisms
Ability to scale or sunset programs based on feedback
Intersectoral mobility (people, knowledge, funding)
Use of pilots and modular structures in policy design
📐 Metrics:
% of Budget Reprogrammable Within Fiscal Year
Indicates flexibility in reallocating funds to emerging prioritiesTime to Deploy Emergency Policy Instruments (days)
E.g., stimulus funds, emergency procurement, executive ordersRate of Sunset Clause Inclusion in New Legislation (%)
Built-in legal adaptability to avoid rigidityCross-Ministerial Staff Mobility Rate
Ability to redeploy top personnel across agencies for new challengesAverage Time from Trend Detection to Policy Response (months)
Measured via strategic foresight-to-decision feedback loops
🔹 10. Institutional Adaptability Score
✅ Why is it essential?
Adaptable institutions can revise policies, reorganize workflows, and change legal frameworks in response to volatile environments. Rigidity leads to obsolescence; adaptability is key to antifragility and legitimacy during transformation.
🧠 What does it influence?
Legal and policy agility under uncertainty
Reform feasibility and timeline
Ability to repurpose agencies and budgets
Trust in institutions during fast-moving crises or opportunities
🧩 What are its components?
Speed and flexibility of legislative amendments
Use of temporary or emergency legal instruments
Institutional learning loops (feedback, audit, reform)
Cross-sector coordination bodies
Capacity for rule-based vs principle-based governance
📐 Metrics:
Average Time to Amend Existing Laws (months)
Legislative agility benchmarkRatio of Fast-Track vs Standard Legislative Procedures
Indicator of emergency responsiveness and system overload% of Policies with Built-In Review/Reform Timelines
E.g., mandatory reviews every 3–5 yearsRate of Institutional Reorganization Events per Decade
E.g., mergers, closures, agency transformationsPolicy Revision Cycle Time (months)
Time between receiving audit results and implementing policy change
🔹 11. Public R&D Intensity
✅ Why is it essential?
Public investment in R&D lays the foundation for long-term economic competitiveness, sovereign innovation, and technology diffusion — especially in foundational science and domains not yet commercially viable.
🧠 What does it influence?
Domestic innovation pipeline
Sovereign capability in critical technologies
Spin-off entrepreneurship and startups
Talent retention and brain circulation
Technological preparedness
🧩 What are its components?
Government R&D spending (% of GDP)
Share of funding allocated to mission-oriented projects
Balance between basic and applied research
University and institute grant systems
State participation in advanced tech sectors (e.g., AI, biotech)
📐 Metrics:
Public R&D Expenditure as % of GDP
OECD standard metric for innovation capacity% of Public R&D Budget Allocated to Mission-Driven Programs
E.g., green transition, AI safety, pandemic readinessNumber of Government-Funded Research Institutions per Million People
Capacity and reach of public research infrastructureAverage Time from Grant Award to Project Start (months)
Efficiency and friction in funding mechanismsNumber of Patents or Startups per €1M of Public R&D
Outcome productivity metric
🔹 12. Innovation System Connectivity Index
✅ Why is it essential?
An effective innovation system depends on the fluid exchange of ideas, people, and projects across academia, industry, and government. Fragmentation slows innovation. Connectivity accelerates it.
🧠 What does it influence?
Knowledge diffusion speed
Commercialization of research
Scaling of innovation into real-world impact
National resilience through cross-sector learning
Public-private partnership efficiency
🧩 What are its components?
Volume of university-industry collaborations
Co-funding and co-publication networks
Existence of joint innovation centers or technology parks
Policy frameworks that enable cross-sector cooperation
Exchange programs for researchers and public officials
📐 Metrics:
% of R&D Projects Co-Funded by Public and Private Sector
Key proxy for collaboration healthNumber of Joint Publications Between Universities and Firms
Scientific exchange and commercialization alignmentNumber of Innovation Clusters or Tech Parks with Mixed Governance
E.g., university-industry-government co-managed hubsResearcher Mobility Rate Across Sectors (%)
Academia-to-industry and vice versa over 5-year periodsAnnual Count of Joint Public-Private Innovation Initiatives Launched
E.g., AI sandboxes, testbeds, or consortia
🔹 13. Export Diversification Index
✅ Why is it essential?
A diversified export base makes a country less vulnerable to global demand shocks, commodity cycles, or geopolitical disruption. It also reflects the economy's ability to move up value chains and tap into complex, high-margin markets.
🧠 What does it influence?
Economic resilience and trade stability
Innovation spillovers and productivity in tradables
Foreign currency income stability
Long-term strategic autonomy
Bargaining power in trade blocs
🧩 What are its components?
Number of distinct product categories exported
Share of complex vs raw/low-tech exports
Number of distinct export destinations
Sophistication of export products (HS6 level)
Integration into high-tech global supply chains
📐 Metrics:
Export Product Concentration Index (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index)
Measures concentration across product linesShare of Exports in High-Complexity Sectors (%)
From Economic Complexity Index or HS codesNumber of Export Markets Exceeding $100M in Value
Indicates geographical diversification% of Export Growth Driven by New Product Categories (last 5 years)
Innovation and adaptation metricGlobal Supply Chain Integration Score
Value-added participation in multi-country production chains
🔹 14. Entrepreneurship Rate
✅ Why is it essential?
A high entrepreneurship rate reflects a dynamic economy where new ideas are tested, local needs are met rapidly, and youth and talent are absorbed into productive work. It is also a proxy for economic democratization and opportunity access.
🧠 What does it influence?
Employment generation and informal sector formalization
Innovation at the grassroots level
Absorption of AI and digital technologies in microbusinesses
Competitiveness of non-incumbent firms
Resilience to large firm failures or monopolistic stagnation
🧩 What are its components?
New business density per capita
Survival rate of startups
Time and cost to register a business
Entrepreneurial intention among youth
Early-stage financing availability
📐 Metrics:
New Business Registrations per 1,000 People per Year
Standard GEM/OECD metric3-Year Survival Rate of New Businesses (%)
Indicates entrepreneurial ecosystem maturityAverage Time to Register a Business (days)
Friction and access barrier indicator% of Youth (18–34) with Entrepreneurial Intent
Survey-based; potential vs actual entrepreneurshipVenture Capital Investment as % of GDP
Enabling condition for high-growth startups
🔹 15. Strategic Foresight Capacity
✅ Why is it essential?
Foresight capacity measures the state’s ability to anticipate, monitor, and plan for long-term disruptions and transformations (e.g. climate, AI, demographic shifts). It’s critical for long-term strategy, resilience, and innovation governance.
🧠 What does it influence?
National preparedness for paradigm shifts
Investment in future-oriented capabilities
Ability to frame AI, biotech, or geo shifts as opportunities
Adaptive regulatory and education reforms
Whole-of-government alignment on future scenarios
🧩 What are its components?
Dedicated foresight units in government
Scenario planning across ministries
Foresight integration into policy planning
Use of horizon scanning and trend monitoring tools
Partnerships with academia and think tanks
📐 Metrics:
Number of Ministries with Dedicated Foresight Units or Officers
Structure and institutionalization of futures thinkingAverage Time Horizon of Official Strategic Plans (years)
Short-termism vs future-proofing% of Major Policies with Scenario Analysis Attached
Indicates foresight embedded in decision-makingBudget Allocated to Foresight Activities per Year (€)
Relative to national planning or science fundingForesight Integration Score in National Budgeting Process
Qualitative audit-based score (low–med–high integration)
🔹 16. Regulatory Agility Score
✅ Why is it essential?
In an era of rapidly evolving technologies (AI, biotech, fintech), regulatory agility determines whether the state enables innovation or strangles it. It’s a key factor for national competitiveness in frontier industries and for trust in state flexibility.
🧠 What does it influence?
Speed of innovation adoption
Attractiveness for R&D and tech investment
Ability to sandbox and safely experiment
Reduction of compliance overhead for new business models
Adaptive governance and resilience in ambiguity
🧩 What are its components?
Speed of regulatory updates
Use of experimental regulation (e.g. sandboxes)
Cross-ministry task forces for emerging technologies
Open consultation mechanisms with industry/startups
Future-readiness embedded in legal frameworks
📐 Metrics:
Time from Tech Emergence to First Regulatory Framework (months)
E.g., AI, crypto, telemedicine – measures lagNumber of Active Regulatory Sandboxes in the Country
Live test zones for innovation (e.g., fintech, AI ethics)% of Laws Updated Annually to Reflect Tech Trends
Speed of legislative responsivenessIndustry Satisfaction with Regulatory Adaptability (%)
Survey-based or from OECD Regulatory Policy OutlookPresence of Multi-Stakeholder Regulatory Foresight Council (yes/no + frequency of meetings)
Signals coordination and horizon scanning embedded in regulation
🔹 17. Sovereign Technology Dependence Index
✅ Why is it essential?
Over-dependence on foreign technology, especially in critical infrastructure, defense, AI, or semiconductors, creates strategic vulnerabilities and reduces national autonomy in key decisions.
🧠 What does it influence?
National cybersecurity and resilience
Ability to shape technological futures
Bargaining power in global politics and trade
Supply chain independence and robustness
Economic sovereignty in digital and energy systems
🧩 What are its components?
Foreign share in critical infrastructure (cloud, 5G, SCADA)
Domestic vs foreign IP ownership in tech stack
Control over AI and compute resources
Participation in open-source or joint sovereign projects
Emergency access to fallback systems
📐 Metrics:
% of Critical Infrastructure Operated on Foreign Tech
E.g., telecom, cloud, grid systems – source auditsDomestic Ownership of Core Digital Infrastructure (yes/no + % control)
Cloud, data centers, OS, AI models, encryptionImport Dependency Ratio in Semiconductor and Compute Supply Chain
Customs and procurement data% of Public Services Using Domestically Maintained Software
Cyber-sovereignty metricLevel of Participation in EU or International Sovereign Tech Initiatives
E.g., GAIA-X, EuroHPC, IPCEI programs – binary + engagement score
🔹 18. Civic Trust & Participation Index
✅ Why is it essential?
In resilient democracies, public legitimacy is the hidden infrastructure. Trust determines whether reforms stick, whether crisis responses succeed, and how much social capital the government can draw upon.
🧠 What does it influence?
Willingness to comply with policy under stress
Resilience of institutions during shocks
Speed of recovery post-crisis
Support for strategic reforms and experimentation
National cohesion and polarization levels
🧩 What are its components?
Trust in government and public services
Citizen participation in policy formulation
Voter turnout and democratic engagement
Civil society vibrancy
Responsiveness of institutions to public feedback
📐 Metrics:
% of Citizens Reporting Trust in Government
From Eurobarometer or national polling (e.g., Edelman Trust Barometer)Voter Turnout in National and Local Elections (%)
Civic engagement benchmarkParticipation Rate in Government Consultations or Citizen Assemblies
Quality of democratic feedback loops# of Active Civil Society Organizations per Million Inhabitants
Indicator of bottom-up resilience capacityPublic Perception of Government Responsiveness Score (survey-based)
Subjective but highly predictive of legitimacy under stress